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Death of King Fahd, IMF Push Dollar Lower by Ezechiel Copic
4:00 E-12 July PMI Manufacturing (exp. 50.5, prev. 49.9), 4:30 UK July PMI Manufacturing (CIPS) (exp. 50.0, prev. 49.6), 10:00 US June Construction Spending (exp. -0.2%, prev. -0.9%), 10:00 US July ISM Manufacturing (exp. 57.0, prev. 53.8), 21:30 AUD June Retail Sales (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.9%), 21:30 AUD June Trade Balance (exp. AUD 1.3 bln, prev. AUD -1.6 bln).
The US dollar dropped across the board this morning largely due to non-data driven news, specifically the death of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd, as well as a recent IMF report asserting the dollar was significantly overvalued. King Fahd, Saudi Arabia's ruling monarch died today at the age of 83. Although most decision-making powers were passed on to Crown Prince Abdullah after King Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995, the significance of this event is that the new ruling monarch is considered more conservative and not as sympathetic towards the US as his predecessor. Crown Prince Abdullah's ascension to power could significantly impact Saudi foreign policy towards the US, especially with regards to oil diplomacy.
Citing America's current-account deficit, the International Monetary Fund stated in its latest annual report on the US economy, released on Friday, that the dollar's exchange rate was overvalued and remained at a level above what was necessary to alleviate the current trade imbalance. Despite the recent rash of strong data from the world's largest economy, this recent report brings back into focus the Achilles heel of the US economy, namely its large deficit. Although the US trade deficit fell 3% in May to $55.3 billion, much of the improvement was due to a decline in oil prices. With crude oil hitting record highs in July, there is concern that the deficit balloon will once again inflate, thus adding downward pressure to the greenback.
The July manufacturing ISM index will be released today at 10 am and the recent strength of the NY Empire survey and the Philly Fed survey, coupled with the stellar showing of the Chicago PMI last Friday all point to a strong number. Indeed, the current expectation for the July manufacturing ISM is 57, which would be the highest level all year. However, in light of recent data, economists may actually raise their forecast, with rumors of a "whisper" number as high as 60 making the rounds. For this reason, the dollar may require a figure at or above 60 for it to rally.
Although the greenback is failing to respond to the recent strength of US economic data, the yield on the 10 year US Treasury note has risen 10 basis points since Friday hitting 4.30%.
Euro breaks above 5 month channel
The euro is up more than a cent against the dollar this morning at $1.2230 as the common currency breaks north of its 5 month channel. Although these recent gains in the euro can be attributed to the dollar's weakness following the death of King Fahd in Saudi Arabia and the recent IMF report calling the greenback overvalued, the euro has also been lifted by PMI data from the Eurozone indicating that the manufacturing sector is beginning to show signs of recovery. The overall July Eurozone PMI increased for the second consecutive month to 50.8 from 49.9, breaking above the expansion/contraction level of 50 for the first time since March. The three largest economies in the Eurozone also reported their own PMI figures as well with France and Italy beating consensus estimates, improving to 51.9 and 50.8 respectively. Germany, on the other hand remained unchanged in July at 49.8, failing not only to beat estimates, but also continuing to show signs of contraction.
On a sadder note, Wim Duisenberg, the ECB's first president, was found dead over the weekend at his villa in the south of France, apparently drowning after suffering a cardiac problem. Mr. Duisenberg was the head of the Dutch Central Bank before taking over at the ECB in 1999. Often referred to as "Mr. Euro," he oversaw the smooth transition for 12 countries as they adopted a new common currency.
A sustained break out of the 5 month channel should see the euro test $1.2250-60, followed by 1.2290. Support starts at 1.21-the 38% retracement of the $1.1866-1.2250 rise, followed by 1.2070.
Sterling eyes $1.77 despite contracting PMI
Despite weaker than expected PMI manufacturing data from the UK, sterling continues to gain ground against the dollar as it eyes $1.77. The CIPS manufacturing PMI report for July failed to meet expectations, falling to 49.2 from 49.6. With manufacturing in the UK continuing to contract as opposed to the recent acceleration in growth found on the European continent, there now seems to be an even greater possibility that the Bank of England will cut interest rates to at least 4.50% on Thursday.
A break above the interim resistance level of 1.77, could see GBPUSD test further resistance at 1.7770. Support is holding at 1.7555 - the 50% retracement from the 1.5605-1.9510 move. Additional support occurs at 1.7515.
Strong growth boosts loonie
The loonie has gained almost 2 cents against the greenback in the past three days, as CAD is helped by better than expected expansion of the Canadian economy in May with 0.3% growth. As oil prices once again break above $60/barrel, the strength of the loonie should continue to be underpinned.
Support for USDCAD is holding at 1.2170, followed by 1.2120 and 1.21 - the 61.8% retracement of the move from 1.1715 to 1.2735. Resistance has fallen to 1.2273 - the 200 day MA. Further resistance for the pair occurs at 1.2315 and 1.2350 - the 100 day MA.
Chinese revaluation hits futures market, dollar weakened
The US dollar was weakened in the futures market for the week ending July 26 due mostly to the revaluation of the Chinese yuan and another unfortunate bombing incident in London (this time, thankfully, a failed attempt). Dollar long positions against the euro, yen, sterling and swissie were all pared down - with the position of the Swiss franc actually turning into a net long against the dollar. As for the commodity currencies, the dollar was mixed with aussie net longs increasing on one hand, and loonie net longs declining on the other.
The strength of the US economy no longer seems to be enough for currency traders as the euro gained interest in the futures market with net short positions for the euro decreasing by 30% to 8,296 contracts. The renewed attacks on London and the Chinese revaluation of the yuan have spurred more interest in the euro. Although the actual make-up of China's new trade-weighted currency peg is still unknown, there is much speculation that the euro will play a prominent role, thus adding further impetus to its recent gains.
Net short positions for the Japanese yen fell almost 20% to 47,768 contracts this week after the impact of the Chinese revaluation was factored in. These latest developments out of China should help prop up the yen, but there could be some downside risk if the increase in the price of crude oil, which is attempting to break above $60/barrel again, gains any traction.
Despite the failed bombing attempts in London, the sterling has held its ground, even improving against the dollar with net short positions for sterling decreasing 22% to 19,865 from last week's 22-month high of 25,825. The market still remains nervous about the possibility of future attacks and this, coupled with the belief that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this week, may stunt any further gains for sterling in the future.
The Swiss franc reversed its course and moved from a net short position to a net long position against the dollar with total net long contracts equaling 4,981 - the highest level since the first week of January. Although total short positions remained nearly the same, long positions increased almost 8 fold from 6,019 contracts to 46,014. As fear of future attacks against London begin to subside, the strength of the Swiss franc may also wane as well, with fewer traders looking to park their money in a safe haven, such as Switzerland.
The Australian dollar has benefited recently from China's decision to revalue its currency as well as the recent surge in commodity prices, especially for copper. Total net longs for the aussie almost tripled to 17,343 contracts this week from 6,756. Although China has recently denied it, further speculation concerning additional appreciation of the yuan, as well as the fact that copper hit a record high late last week, could underpin further strengthening of the aussie.
The Canadian dollar, which had enjoyed the attention of the futures market for the past several weeks, may have been overbought and could now be in a corrective phase as CAD net longs were reduced by 32% last week to 17,519 contracts. Although the loonie should have received support from the revaluation of the yuan, recent economic data has been weak, causing the markets to wonder if the Bank of Canada will, in fact, raise interest rates, as expected at their next meeting in September.
01-08-2005, 03:45 PM
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