05-01-2007, 11:29 PM
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#11 (permalink)
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|  رد: استراتيجية فانيسا Vanessa
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اقتباس:
This is a basic system I use to identify medium term trade 1-5 days, it uses 4 hour charts and only GBP/USD I have tried it with other currencies but there are too many fadeouts.
What You Need
-4hr GBP/USD chart
-MACD
-100SMA
-200SMA
-6EMA
-13SMA
-News service
100SMA & 200SMA
These are basically just there to help pick out tops and bottoms, crosses do not really mean much they simply act as support resistance lines.
News service
Unless you are a scalper news will affect the position you take especially if you are holding for 1-5. So it is absolutely essential to have a news service I use Bloomberg but a cheaper alternative is Trade the News. If you look on the home page of this website you can sign up to Trade the News with a 15% discount. I was holding a short position on GBP/USD on Thursday the 9th of November (last Thursday) I was about 50 pips when I heard talks about diversification from an important Chinese official. I exited the position immediately with the 50 pips. Had I not had the news service I would have got stopped out at BE or with -10 pips.
In my opinion a news service is essential to any trader I am not aware of any free ones but I am sure if you look you will find some.
Here is a list of the ones I have had experience with and recommend:
-Bloomberg: $1700 USD a month and you need to sign a 2 year contract it is pricey but you get what you pay for.
-Reuters: $700 USD a month not far off Bloomberg in content and sometimes faster Reuters is an excellent service at a more reasonable price and as far as I remember there are no contracts.
-TTN: Around $150 USD a month obviously not as good as Bloomberg or Reuters but it is an excellent choice if you cannot afford a big bill once a month. They do keep up quite well with Bloomberg on speed but as far as content goes both Bloomberg and Reuters blow it out of the water.
News services can easily save you more than the subscription cost per month in one day.
System
Ok now to the good part, this is not a complex system and it works very well, it needs to be combined with a good uses of stop losses to maximize the profits and minimize the losses.
The system is based on 4 hour charts, I do not like sitting in front of my computer constantly monitoring charts, I got into the Forex business so I could have more freedom and my idea of freedom isn’t sitting on a chair 8/16 hours a day. I designed this system to take up very little of my time and have been using it for years.
Sometimes trades can go against you up to 70 pips you need to have enough money in your account to cover this and enough balls to stick to the trade. It requires a strong mentality when I trade I think like a machine, I see a signal I execute. I know this sounds easy but it is hard to get to get to the point that you are able to do this. You do need to take things into consideration, if you have an NFP report coming out in half an hour you shouldn’t jump into a trade. I could go on with this for hours but I think it is common sense. What you shouldn’t do is look at bigger/smaller time frames for confirmation of the signal; if you look hard enough you will ALWAYS find a conflicting signal. You also shouldn’t enter too early; you enter when you see a signal.
The actual system is simple plot both SMA’s on a 4 hour GBP/USD chart and use a stock MACD. I also plot on my graph monthly/weekly/daily highs and lows if I get a short signal just above a weekly low I wait till the low is broken before entering (by broken I mean it has to move past and close below the line). This is the same with 100/200 SMA’s be careful not to enter to close to one of those lines as it can find support/resistance in those areas. 90% of the times the line will be broken but it is better to be safe than sorry and I would rather get in 30 pips later than lose 30 pips by jumping in early. The general rule I have is not to enter if the price is 40pips or lower from touching the line.
The system is simple enough you wait for a cross of the MACD followed by a cross of the MA lines or a cross of the MA lines followed by a cross of the MACD.
Long signal
- 6EMA crosses above the 13SMA and MACD lines cross indicating an upwards trend.
Short Signal
- 6EMA crosses below the 13 EMA and MACD lines cross indicating a downwards trend.
Stops
Generally I do not set a stop when I enter; if I leave my PC I will set a stop of about 70 pips. When I reach 50 pips profit I will set a 50 pip trailing stop and follow the trend down, I will close a stop prior to news releases if I am up 70+ pips, most news releases are short lived and they rarely move the market 70+ pips. Again common sense is needed, if you have NFP coming out and you are up 70 pips you might want to exit the position. I do not because I thoroughly analyses any major reports and almost always pick the right direction. I have held the positions through NFP reports and have not been stopped out. Setting stops comes down to your own personal preference I have given you an idea of how I set my stop but at the end of the day you should decide the amount you are willing to risk. Make sure you do not keep them too tight or too loose I think 70 pip SL is perfect to start off with. My minimum target is 50 pips on these trades so the more it drops the wider my trailing gets, I push it to 100 pips trailing stop loss.
I entered a Short GBP/USD trade on Monday of this week and I am currently up 200 pips with a 100 pip trailing stop loss.
Exits
You either exit when your trailing stop gets triggered or when the EMA’s cross back over indicating a reversal.
Fundamentals
It is very important to have knowledge about fundamentals if you want to trade in the Forex market. Fundamentals can turn around any great tech trade in a matter is minutes. I recommend picking up a book on economics, here are some recommended books
Naked economics:
http://www.amazon.com/Naked-Economi...e/dp/0393049825
This book is easy to read they do not confuse you with huge technical words.
Trading the fundamentals:
http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Funda...ie=UTF8&s=books
This book concentrates on the actual reports like NFP, it helps you understand how all the pieces of the puzzle fit together.
Alternatively you can wait for the second e-book that will be released from this website; I will be writing the section on fundamentals (economics).
This post is by VanessaFX, I got it from another forum, all her posts especially her news analysis and articles are amzing I can not post up the link its against the rules but if anybody wants to know just private message me.
Copyright © 2006 - 2007 Any of the text written pertaining to this method can not be reproduced, copied or re-written anywhere else without the prior consent of the author. This system can not be turned into a MT4indicator or Expert Advisor or Auto Trader, without the prior consent of the author. | | | التوقيع | | trading Forex since : June-2006
trading Gbp/Jpy since : June-2007
Nothing Is More Important than Discipline ; Robert Fischer
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استراتيجية فانيسا Vanessa 
رد: استراتيجية فانيسا Vanessa 
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